The only way is to denuclearize the world. There are no other alternatives despite wishful illusions of some diplomats and politicians. Just look at the map.
Iran is surrounded by nuclear weapon-wielding states and powers. Across the northern horizon, Russia and Kazakhstan had nuclear-weapons for decades throughout the Cold War. There is talk about loose warheads and materials from those areas on the black markets of the world. United States controls Afghanistan in the East and Iraq in the West. This implies nuclear weapons whenever a need arises. U.S. aircraft carriers and submarines armed with nuclear weapons cruise the Persian Gulf to the South and have done so for years.
Pakistan, India, and China, all nuclear powers, loom farther to the East. Syria has known nuclear ambitions and North Korea contacts just to the West of Iraq. Israel, with a nuclear strike force is poised to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities with deep bunker penetration weapons. U.S. Navy, off Lebanon and bases in Turkey, are just minutes of missile flight time away.
You can’t really blame Iranian leadership for feeling somewhat restless and eager to go nuclear. We may not like it, but those are the nuclear geopolitics realities of that region. Nuclear weapons are now symbols of military and national power. Nuclear disarmament is political castration in the geopolitics of the 21st century.
There are over 23,000 nuclear weapons in the world and experts claim disarmament of those could be accomplished in a matter of days. But there are also over 40 conflicts around the world that could escalate into nuclear blackmail if political solutions are not found and those may take years if ever to resolve.
Nuclear testing is used to check out new designs and to send political messages that others pay attention to. South Africa developed nuclear weapons independently although it since gave them up. North Korea demonstrated that you do not have to be a rich and sophisticated country to achieve “nuclear power” status and reap political benefits.
As a result nuclear-armed Iran is a foregone conclusion despite wishful thinking of world leaders or the ineffective decrees of the United Nations. It is futile to imagine that Iran can be talked out of it. Not at this stage, despite public denials of Ahmadinejad himself. And let’s not kid ourselves. His domestic enemies are also proponents of nuclear power for Iran.
Basically, however, it is most unlikely that all the existing nuclear powers and states can be persuaded to give up nuclear weapons. Nuclear powers are here to stay and will certainly proliferate in the future. The more we insist on Iran giving it up the more likely it is to develop its nuclear arsenal. If we prevent it from doing it, Iran may even set up shop abroad in some convenient third world countries where it will be impossible to discover in time. Perhaps in Libya, Hungary or Venezuela. Judging how Poland and CzechRepublic were treated recently it could happen anywhere. There are 90 countries that pay lip service to nuclear disarmament but object to inspection of their nuclear development activities. Many may secretly proliferate in the future North Korea style. In 2008 alone over 200 questionable incidents were identified suggestive of questionable if not illegal nuclear materials transactions.
The most terrifying is the potential emergence of stateless nuclear terror groups that may engage in political blackmail in third countries. The “Have Nukes, Will Travel” approach may become standard once nuclear weapons development is mastered by private entities serving the highest bidder. Iran already supports terrorist organizations operating outside its borders. This is why it is critical to watch closely the dealings of Ahmadinejad with Kim-Jong-Il of North Korea, Hugo Chavez of Venezuela, and Raul Castro of Cuba, who are not particular friends of the Unites States. Here is an opportunity for Iran to assist in providing nuclear weapons to other insurgents like the Basques in Spain or the Zapatistas struggling for the independence of the state of Chiapas from Mexico. It would then be simple to blackmail the United States into giving back California, Texas, Arizona and New Mexico to satisfy the long-standing Mexican Reconquista objectives.
The western powers are confronting Iran in its rush to nuclearize its arsenal. Talking to Ahmadinejad will probably be of little use, unlikely to yield an acceptable solution to what already amounts to nuclear blackmail. After all, his political motto “it is doable and we can do it”, seems to keep him in power despite known opposition. His stated objective to wipe Israel off the map needs no comment.
Let’s face it. The world is edging toward nuclear terror. It’s no longer a question of if, but when, where, and how it will happen. America, the hope and envy of the world, is a prime target, but in popular politics nuclear terror as a subject is taboo. There are no clear solutions to protect innocent populations. The visible political players are skirting the issue by paying lip service to unrealistic assumptions and economic sanctions. But there is a growing undercurrent of comprehension among men of vision and even large segments of the population that a new era of nuclear geopolitics is upon us.
If you accept the argument that we are entering a dangerous and unstable nuclear terror and blackmail era, it becomes obvious that traditional political processes are no longer adequate to navigate such unpredictable and treacherous environments. When you listen to the pronouncements of many politicians, you are lulled into the comfort of the traditional democratic process. Nuclear terror geopolitics changes all that..When suicide bombers are in fashion, suicidal nuclear terrorists may not be far behind.
One thing should be clear, the top 400 to 600 global decision makers, whoever they may be, must be aware that a new era of nuclear geopolitics is upon us.Let us hope that while we have the chance we make sure that suitable experience and strong leadership will come into play to handle the increasingly undemocratic world of the immediate future. Adolescent leadership is just not acceptable. (1011 words)
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Other columns and articles by Bohdan O. Szuprowicz available from 21st Century Research:
You Lie, Boy,A Nuclear Poland, Perhaps?, Unforgettable September of 70 Years Ago, A Nuclear Republic of Chiapas, A Cold War Affair, The Sweet Taste of Revenge, Secret Reports of a Spy from Outer Space, The Standby, The Rape of Monsignor Minet, Binki – How the life of a dog was saved, Who’s Next for Paradise? – My Suicides, The Doublecross Committee, Print-on-Demand Publishing for All,
Author of articles published in Atlanta Constitution, Les Affaires, Australian Financial News, Barron's Weekly, California Business, China Business Review, Christian Science Monitor, Copley News Service, Defense Technology, Denver Post, Dun's Review, Eurofinance, Fact, Financial Post, Gannett Publications, Japan Economic Journal, Military Technology, Moneyworth, Newsday, Newsweek International, New Scientist, Planning Review, Purchasing, Singapore Times, Skrzydlata Polska, Telecommunications, Usine Nouvelle, Wall Street Transcript, Zero Uno and many others.
Author of 6 books with McGraw-Hill, John Wiley & Sons, St. Martin's Press, Amacom and Todd Publications.
Prepared numerous corporate reports dealing with Internet communications, Y2K issues, global millenium celebrations.
Early Print-on-Demand publisher of multiclient studies dealing with strategic markets in Arab states, China, Soviet Bloc, Europe and Japan.
Publisher of 8 E-Titles on Kindle
Member of Sarasota Fiction Writers Club, Sarasota Writers Forum, and Sarasota Authors Connection, British Schools and Universities Club, and the Schiehallion Club of Kinloch Rannoch in Scotland.